The Economy as an Accelerant

Let's take a look at a snapshot of our current crappy economy, as posted by 24/7 Wall St. in Ten Signs The Double-Dip Recession Has Begun:

1. Inflation is rising, despite the Fed's efforts to keep it in check.

2. Investments have begun to yield less.

3. The auto industry seems to be coming back, but prospects aren't good. Auto sales are a sign of consumer confidence and if sales don't rise, then the auto industry will tank again.

4. Oil prices are at their highest, putting a huge dent in consumers' wallets just to get around and to work.

5. The federal budget sucks and the Republicans and Democrats are sparring with our livelihood on trying to get a measure passed to deal with the debt ceiling, and how to reduce spending overall.

6. The Chinese economy seems to be slowing down, which will cause American companies to earn less.

7. Unemployment is still super high. And unemployment benefits and checks are ending.

8. The debt ceiling will probably be reset but austerity measures to reduce debt aren't going to have a positive effect across the economy.

9. There is lack of access to credit across the board, hurting small businesses especially.

10. Housing and mortgage issues still abound. Huge numbers of consumers can't pay their mortgages, and distressed mortgages are still on banks' balance sheets and can't be rid of easily.

We're in a world where a lot of the population have lost their jobs (and their unemployment checks are ending), can't find new jobs, or are earning less in their current jobs. But, the price of everything is rising, like gas. People need to make at least minimal ends meet but can't find jobs anywhere. Or their current company is downsizing and moving operations elsewhere, or eliminating them. If consumers don't or can't spend, there is the trickle down effect to all corporations down the chain, and eventually all these positive earnings that companies are reporting are going to stop.

You'd think that early stage startups would have little chance of succeeding in a world where consumers have no money to spend, or corporations are unwilling to spend even if they have large hoards of cash (although perhaps this is changing finally?).

However, I don't think that's the case. There is evidence that startups that are built on the backs of the crappy economy are thriving. Here are some:

Flash sale sites (Gilt Groupe, Ideeli, Rue La La, Hautelook) given consumers their luxury brand goods, but at much lower prices than normal. Despite having less or no earnings, people can still get their goods at least until their money *really* runs out.

Deal sites (Groupon, Living Social) are enormous juggernauts, again, where people can get deals on anything from restaurants to interesting things to do, to great places to travel to.

Sites that allow you to make money off your own stuff or skills (Etsy, AirBnB, GetAround) are flourishing because people under pressure to make money to survive may find it much more worthwhile to just start renting out their extra rooms or cars, or start a business themselves.

Small business and crowd funding sites (Kickstarter, Profounder, IndieGoGo) are also doing well because people who want to start businesses can't find funding anywhere else in today's bad economy where banks won't lend.

Given the crappy state of the economy today, what other ideas can flourish besides those above?

HOWEVER, if you try to start a startup in today's crappy economic environment which requires a great economy as an accelerant, you might as well be trying to start a fire in a pouring rainstorm. Ignoring the economy when designing your startup could be fatal; in my post, Mark Fletcher at Startup2Startup and the Evolution of Startup Business Strategy I talk about Mark's advice on startup building in different economic conditions and how he changed the way he approached his startup due to the conditions at the time. I now add that the state of the economy has a dramatic effect on what you're building too - if you choose something that does not take advantage of the economic conditions at the time, then you could be doomed to fail no matter what you do.

[Still, this also means that if you launch the same idea in a different economic climate, it could work beautifully - is it time for the new pets.com to emerge yet?]

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